TLDR
Indicative of past COVID-19. Using a Bayesian latent class model with multilevel regression and poststratification, the statewide prevalence of current COVID-19 was 0.9% (95% credible interval, 0.1% to 2.0%). The statewide prevalence of past COVID-19 was 1.5% (95% credible interval, 0.3% to 2.9%).
While hundreds of thousands of Ohio adults have had COVID-19 since March 2020, community spread is ongoing and many millions remain susceptible
Prevalance of COVID-19
Nearly all (n=716, 98%) participants had valid nasopharyngeal swab PCR test results. From the Bayesian latent class model with multilevel regression and poststratification, the statewide prevalence of current COVID-19 was 0.9% (95% credible interval, 0.1% to 2.0%). Given the size of the adult population of Ohio, this prevalence corresponds to approximately 80,000 COVID-19 cases among Ohio adults during that time period. Meanwhile, approximately 23,000 Ohio adults were diagnosed with COVID-19 during the same 20 days, suggesting that total cases in the state were approximately 3.5 times as high as diagnosed cases.
A smaller proportion (n=592, 81%)of participants had valid antibody results for all hree assays. Again using a Bayesian latent class model, the statewide prevalence of past COVID-19 was 1.5% (95% credible interval, 0.3% to 2.9%), corresponding to approximately 133,000 Ohio adults with evidence of past COVID-19. Importantly, the antibodies measured in this analysis remain detectable for an uncertain period of time; current data suggest that most people will no longer have detectable antibodies three months after infection.
COVID-19 PREVENTION BEHAVIORS:
Participants answered questions about seven prevention behaviors that they practiced “all or most of the time,”during the stay-at-home period from (March 15 through May 25, 2020), and the last 30 days (Figure 3). During the stay-at-home period, between 75.6% and 94.4% of respondents (depending on the question) reported practicing each behavior all or most of the time. The only exception to this pattern was wearing a face covering at work outside the home (33.6%). We observed a similar pattern in prevention behaviors for the last 30 days, although the proportion endorsing each behavior was attenuated compared to the stay-at-home period: 50.9% to 90.9% of participants (depending on the question) reported practicing each behavior all or most of the time. Once again, The exception to this pattern was the proportion reporting wearing a mask at work outside the home (33.9%), which was unchanged compared to the stay-at-home period.
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